It is reasonable to assume that the Nintendo Switch’s successor will launch in 2024.
As rumours about Nintendo’s next system continue to swirl, many gamers are left wondering what to expect next from the entertainment giant. The Nintendo Switch has been the company’s primary system for over six years, and while it continues to see the release of notable titles, many players feel that it is time for something new.
Thankfully, it seems that those players won’t have to wait much longer. Nintendo’s current situation and recent actions all seem to point toward a full console successor – not a basic revision or “Pro” model – launching soon, presumably within the year of 2024.
It’s worth noting that the Nintendo Switch is the company’s longest-lasting primary system in comparison to their past home consoles. While the Switch is a hybrid unit, it is most comparable to Nintendo’s past home consoles rather than their handhelds and is usually considered a direct successor to the Wii U.
Nintendo Switch is currently in its seventh year on the market, putting it at the long end of the average five-to-seven-year lifespan of average Nintendo consoles. In a statement to investors, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa said that the Switch’s longevity has launched the company into “uncharted territory,” adding that “it is hard to imagine that hardware sales will continue to grow at the same pace they have to date.”
There lies Nintendo’s problem. While the Switch is certainly selling very well for a console nearing its seventh anniversary, its sales are undeniably not reaching the heights that it was years ago.
According to Nintendo’s 2023 fiscal year report, Switch hardware sales decreased 22.1 per cent compared to their previous fiscal year. Software sales also dropped by 9 per cent compared to the previous fiscal year despite the massive launches of
titles like Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet.
On top of the Switch’s extensive time on store shelves, it doesn’t help that the competing PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S consoles are now abundant in supply after years of shortages during the pandemic.
“Sustaining the Switch’s sales momentum will be difficult in its seventh year. Our goal of selling 15 million units this fiscal year is a bit of a stretch, but we will do our best to bolster demand going into the holiday season so that we can achieve the goal,” said Furukawa in a statement to Bloomberg.
Nintendo knows that they cannot continue to see their hardware (and to a lesser extent, software) sales decline. While some may argue that a “Pro” model might rejuvenate sales, this is unlikely to persuade the majority of Nintendo Switch’s massive install base to purchase a whole new system. If half-step improvements were the answer to Nintendo’s problem, then the Nintendo Switch – OLED Model should have sold a significantly higher amount.
Casual players need a reason to dish out their hard-earned money on a new console, and a full successor with more power, additional features and a fresh lineup of exclusive games is likely the only way to convince them.
Despite Nintendo not having officially announced a successor at the time of writing, we can find several clues alluding to an impending launch.
While Nintendo Switch is still seeing the release of major titles such as Super Mario Bros. Wonder, a significant portion of their upcoming lineup consists of remakes and remasters of legacy titles. This can be easily seen when viewing Nintendo’s official release schedule.
On Nov. 17, Nintendo Switch will see the release o Super Mario RPG, a remake of a 1996 SNES title. In January 2024, Another Code: Recollection – a remake of a pair of DS and Wii titles – will launch. Mario vs. Donkey Kong, which originally released for the Game Boy Advance in 2004, has a remake releasing in February 2024; followed by the aptly-named Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD, a remaster of Luigi’s Mansion:
Dark Moon for the 3DS, slated for release in the summer. Finally, a “visually enhanced version” of the GameCube’s Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door is planned for release in 2024.
On the other hand, in terms of fully original titles to expect in the near future, we have Princess Peach: Showtime!, and that’s about it. We still have no new information on the long-awaited Metroid Prime 4.
It’s undeniable that the Switch’s upcoming lineup mostly consists of remakes and remasters. These are certainly all incredible games to have on Switch – The Thousand-Year Door is one that I’m particularly looking forward to – but there’s really not much in the way of original titles.
There is a simple potential explanation for this: Nintendo likely has smaller teams working on remakes and remasters to keep Switch owners temporarily satisfied, while their larger resources are being put toward original blockbuster games so that their upcoming console can have a fantastic launch year lineup.
There’s no way that all these teams within Nintendo simultaneously and coincidentally decided to focus all their resources on re-releasing old titles. Secretly, they’re all putting their energy into original titles for the Switch’s successor.
This is something we saw last generation with the Nintendo 3DS and Wii U. The release schedule for the former was lined with remakes throughout its final years on the market, while the Wii U’s lineup was arguably abysmal in quantity and quality. The reason for this, of course, was to provide the Nintendo Switch with an incredible lineup of first-party games, something they appear to be doing again in preparation for a successor.
It makes sense that Nintendo would want to release a successor with more computing power, given the massive scope of recent releases like The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and the technological limitations that the original Switch imposes upon developers.
This has led to the concept of the “impossible Nintendo Switch port,” a term
delegated to third-party games that no one expects to arrive on Switch purely due to the console’s low processing power. While several ports make their way onto the Switch in style, others deeply struggle, and Nintendo knows they will need to create a more powerful console if they hope to provide a home to even more intensive third-party titles.
There is also empirical evidence to suggest a Nintendo Switch successor is on the horizon. Multiple sources told Eurogamer that the console was presented to Nintendo’s partners behind closed doors at Gamescom, with developers allegedly having been shown a beefed-up version of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild running on the unit.
This is all on top of pre-existing reports that Nintendo is planning a 2024 launch for its next system, but this is all valuable context that points towards the accuracy of these claims.
As original Nintendo Switch software slows down and developers become more ambitious, many players are wondering when they’ll get their hands on something new to play. Observing all the context, clues and reports can let those fans rest easy, because it seems they won’t have to wait much longer.