With the Oscars fast approaching this Sunday, here are my final predictions for who will take home the prestigious golden statues.
Best Picture: Anora
I predict with confidence that Sean Baker’s Anora will be crowned as this year’s best picture winner. Despite critical acclaim and festival success, including a Palme D’Or victory at the Cannes Film Festival last May, Anora’s award-show-run began shakily after it went home empty-handed from the Golden Globes.
Its momentum picked up after it won best picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but the real key behind the film’s success was its guild sweep at award ceremonies for the Director’s Guild of America (DGA), the Producers Guild of America (PGA) and the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA), taking home the highest prizes at each respective ceremony.
With guild voters comprising a substantial portion of the Academy’s voting body, it’s safe to say Anora is the best picture frontrunner for the big night. Its strongest contender is Edward Berger’s Conclave, which has received an abundance of support from the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the BAFTAs, and is, ironically, very timely.
Ultimately, Anora’s DGA, PGA and WGA wins, along with Conclave’s lack of a director nomination, make it a fitting choice for best picture frontrunner this season.
Best Actress: Mikey Madison — Anora
Much like last year and the year prior, this year’s most contentious race has shaped up to be the Best Actress category, with a race between Mikey Madison for her role as the titular character in Anora and Demi Moore for her performance as Elizabeth Sparkle in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror film, The Substance. Both actors have been labelled front runners at various points this season.
Even following Moore’s win at the SAG Awards last Sunday, coupled with her compelling narrative this season, Madison’s win at BAFTA and the film’s overall strength could propel her to take home the Oscar. Additionally, The Substance has not shown signs of being truly competitive outside Best Actress and Best Hair and Makeup, making it a weaker film overall that could prove to be a slight roadblock for Moore.
Whatever happens on Oscars night, both nominees would be deserving winners in their own respect. Madison’s win would make her shine even brighter coming off her star-making performance and Moore’s win would resonate deeply with horror fans and signal a shift in the academy’s attitudes towards genre film.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody — The Brutalist
Winning awards in most major precursors, including the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, Brody’s win for his role as László Tóth in Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist would earn him his second Oscar, his first being for leading actor in The Pianist. Timothée Chalamet’s win at the SAG Awards for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown may cause some hesitation in people predicting Brody as a lock for winning the category, but this late in the race, it likely won’t shake his dominating momentum since the Golden Globes.
Best Director: Sean Baker — Anora
For over a decade now, Sean Baker has established himself as a prominent voice in independent cinema, dedicating himself to a gritty, guerilla style of filmmaking. In time, he will be remembered as an auteur of sorts, and his direction in Anora feels like a grand thesis statement to his filmmaking.
Brady Corbet, who won at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, is the runner-up here, though The Brutalist’s underperformance as a film at guild awards gives Baker the edge.
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez
If you’ve been following this awards season or any news about recently released films, chances are you’ve seen the name Emilia Pérez appear at some point, often coupled with criticism or outright vitriol. Apart from the film’s divisive take on Latin America, controversial comments made by actress Karla Sofia Gascon and director Jacques Audiard have thrown a wrench in the film’s entire awards campaign. Despite this, Zoe Saldaña’s sweep throughout all precursors signifies that she’s unaffected by the controversy and has distanced herself from her co-star’s comments enough to secure her wins.
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin — A Real Pain
Of the four acting categories, supporting actor seems to be the most locked this season with Kieran Culkin sweeping all precursors to the Oscars. There’s not much else to comment on in this category; it’s one of the strongest sweeps we’ve seen in the category recently.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Had A24 handled Sing Sing’s release better, or if Nickel Boys received a wider release before the season began, this category may have been more competitive. Fortunately for Conclave, this win is locked with its fellow nominees being dwarfed by its momentum. With additional love from the SAG Awards, this may be one of my most certain predictions this year.
Best Original Screenplay: Anora
This category has been tricky to predict. The Substance took home best original screenplay at the Critics’ Choice Awards and Cannes, while Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain received the award at the BAFTAs. Anora hasn’t received screenplay wins apart from the WGA, but its status as a Best Picture and Best Director frontrunner makes it a safe prediction to complete the trinity for Baker. Its primary contender here is The Substance, another exemplary screenplay equally deserving of Oscar recognition whose oddity as a body horror may steer voters away.
Other Categories:
Best International Film: Emilia Pérez
Best Animated Film: The Wild Robot
Best Film Editing: Conclave
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist
Best Score: The Brutalist
Best Hair and Makeup: The Substance
Best Costume Design: Wicked
Best Production Design: Wicked
Best Sound: Dune: Part Two
Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Best Original Song: “El Mal” — Emilia Pérez