Since winning the franchise’s first championship in 2019, the Toronto Raptors have become the embodiment of mediocrity. They’ve managed to finish just outside of or in the play-in for what seems like the last half-decade. Raptors fans have become impatient following another disappointing year amidst the once promising Scottie Barnes era. For most of that time the team looked directionless, often making questionable trades and signings that left fans and media wondering what is really going on.
Despite some in-season trades last year and pickups over the summer that enhanced their lineup on paper, some underlying details within the team seem to be holding them back.
Personnel
Amongst one of the most interesting periods in the Raptors franchise history, the team’s identity has revolved around its length and defensive intensity. It has become a joke around the league that the Raptors only roll out lineups of players 6’8 and taller to maximize the defensive potential. Though a bold scheme, this style of lineup hasn’t led to any success over the years, especially for a team that won its championship with one of the league’s best defences.
In an era when three-point shooting is key, a lineup of guys with lots of length but unreliable shooting doesn’t usually lead to playoff success, let alone regular-season wins. The starting lineup for the upcoming season will most likely feature Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. On paper, this team looks like it can cause damage in a weak Eastern Conference. However, when both the eye test and the number disagree, there’s never a good formula for winning.
All the starters have solid career averages, yet they lack the much-desired three-point consistency that is necessary to win in today’s NBA. Quickley is their most dangerous long-range shooter, as he’s able to create his own shot off the dribble with an erratic playstyle like Tyrese Maxey. On the flip side, he’s only an above-average shooter from beyond the arc, shooting just above 37 per cent last year, while the league average was 36 per cent. The other starters are players that teams don’t respect from three-point land. Barrett has improved his shooting over the years; however, defences live with him taking a three as it’s more desirable than giving up paint points — something the Raptors are great at. Barnes, Ingram and Poeltl all live inside the arc, scoring either in the mid-range or at the basket. Even if Coach Darko Rajakovic has changed his scheme to a more three-point shooting-centric offence, the numbers say that this team won’t be making many.
Off of the bench, things don’t get much better. Relative to past years, the Raptors bench unit could either be a pleasant surprise or stay mediocre. Two names stand out here: Gradey Dick and Jamal Shead. Dick came into the NBA known as a shooter, coming off a stellar season as a Kansas Jayhawk where he shot the lights out of the ball. After a rookie season filled with ups and downs, he improved his scoring numbers mightily, yet his shooting declined with inflated shot attempts. Dick still has room to grow as a player, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he became a 40 per cent three-point shooter amid a lineup that will see Barnes and Ingram draw much of the defensive attention. The Raptors desperately need Dick to shoot the ball well this upcoming season, along with his running mate, Shead.
Shead came out of nowhere last year, working his way up the Raptors system until he eventually made it as a full-time starter when Quickley was unavailable. Shead brought energy to a Raptors team that looked out of it sometimes, often bringing his team back to life mid-game with his impressive ability to control the game at such high speeds. Entering this season, Shead will be looked upon to increase his scoring numbers from just above seven points per game, while taking ball-handling duties when the starters are out. Much like the rest of the team, Shead isn’t a great shooter from beyond the arc. If he wants any chance of becoming a rotational player on a solid NBA team in the future, he needs to improve his shooting splits.
Aside from those two, the remainder of Toronto’s bench mainly consists of young or unestablished players looking to earn playing time or respect from their coach. Ja’Kobe Walter is fresh off his rookie season, which saw him spend much of the year in the Raptors’ G League system. Walter was selected with the Raptors’ first pick in the 2024 draft. It’s no surprise the team has high expectations for the Baylor product, as he showed potential in his limited appearances last year. Walter came into last season with a shoulder injury and limited practice time, hindering his ability to learn. Rajakovic commented on Walters’ work he put in over the summer, expressing his excitement for his youngster.
“He added 12 pounds of muscle […] He’s been working very diligently on his shot, and you can see the results of that […] I’m really proud of his work so far,” said Rajakovic.
Walter is still as green as a player can get. However, Raptors fans should be excited for his 2025-26 campaign, as it will be filled with lots of highlights and improvements on both ends of the floor. Walter averaged 8.6 points and 3.1 rebounds last year.
No number one
Much like previous years, the Raptors find themselves in an odd spot without a certified number one option. Aside from the odd 2004 Detroit Pistons team, every championship team in history has had a go-to guy down the stretch who they can call their best player. For the last five years, the Raptors have lacked that player whom they can rely on to hit that game-winning shot. Barnes has been the player that fans and the team have looked upon to be that player ever since they drafted him back in 2021. Though still a very talented player, Barnes has yet to prove he can be that guy down the stretch. Without a consistent outside shot or a polished enough scoring bag, the Raptors are left without a player who can carry them down the stretch. Brandon Ingram is someone the Raptors acquired last season in hopes of adding a scoring punch alongside Barnes. A former all-star and 24-point-per-game scorer, Ingram has been the best player on a playoff team, yet his best years seem to be behind him due to health issues. Since being acquired last season, he has yet to play a game for the Raptors due to injury. Yes, Ingram has shown he can be a lethal scorer, but his thin frame and untrustworthy long-range shot still leaves much to be desired.
History shows that the team with the best player usually wins the series. If the Raptors do make it to the playoffs, each projected postseason team has a bona fide number one option, leaving the Raptors in no man’s land.
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It will be interesting to see how this franchise looks come November. The Eastern Conference looks to be weaker than ever this year, with injuries left and right to star players like Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton. Toronto has the potential to be one of the league’s most shockingly impressive teams, while also having one of the lowest ceilings. It’s nothing short of gloomy in Toronto unless they can make another Kawhi Leonard-type trade, don’t expect much.