Jan. 19th, NHL.com, the official news outlet of the NHL, released their midseason “Trophy Tracker”, an article that detailed the current voting for the NHL’s most valuable player, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers Association.
Done on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis—five points for a first-place vote, four for a second, etc.—the voting was as follows.
1. Nathan Mackinnon of the Colorado Avalanche with 60 points and eight first-place votes
2. Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning with 48 points and one first-place
3. Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers with 33 points and one first-place
4. Artemi Panarin of the New York Rangers with 32 points and one first-place
5. David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins with 17 points (no first-place votes)
6. Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks with 10 points and one first-place vote
7. Sidney Crosby and Pittsburgh Penguins with 7 points and one first-place vote
Notably absent from this list is Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who received two points and no first-place votes.
Saying that this is an odd omission by a group of people paid to watch and comment on the game of hockey would be an understatement. Auston Matthews isn’t just an MVP candidate, he should be the frontrunner.
This isn’t to take away from Kucherov and MacKinnon, who are both having amazing seasons. What is important is to contextualize their success in comparison to that of Matthews.
Starting with basic box score stats, it’s not difficult to see why Matthews isn’t the clear number one, though it is mystifying why he is not at least in the top five.
MacKinnon and Kucherov lead the league with 77 and 76 points respectively. Kucherov is also fourth in goals with 28, while MacKinnon is ninth with 26.
Matthews is further behind in points, sitting at 12th with 56. However, Matthews is the clear leader in goals with 38, on pace for 70, which would be the first time anyone has done that since 1993. Matthews is also four goals ahead of second, the same as the difference between third and ninth. Matthew’s additionally has four hat tricks this season, and if he adds a fifth, he’ll be the first player to do that in 18 years.
The only player in the same stratosphere goal-wise is Florida’s Sam Reinhart, who has 34 (on pace for 61), however, there are a couple of factors that point to Reinhart’s pace being unsustainable. 17 of Reinhart’s 34 goals come on the power play, an environment where scoring is considerably easier than at even strength.
Reinhart’s scoring patterns also bear one of the hallmark red flags of production bound for negative regression: his shooting percentage. Reinhart’s career average shooting percentage is 15.2 per cent and his career shooting percentage with Florida is a slightly higher 18.1 per cent. This year, he’s at 26.8 per cent, but on the powerplay it’s even crazier, where Reinhart is shooting 40.5 per cent.
For reference, Matthews is shooting 19.8 per cent, marginally higher than his career average of 16.1.
Among those who have played more than 10 games, Reinhart is third in the entire league in shooting percentage, behind only low-leverage role players Robby Fabbri and Luke Glendening.
Unless you believe that, at age 28, Sam Reinhart has suddenly discovered the secret to scoring on over a quarter of his shot attempts, Auston Matthews is lapping the field in goal-scoring and will likely continue to do so.
Now we get into points, which is likely the backbone of the Hockey Writers’ argument against Matthews.
There’s no doubt MacKinnon and Kucherov are quite far ahead of Matthews in this regard, however, the environment MacKinnon and Kucherov are scoring in indicates that they are getting much luckier than Matthews.
At even strength, Matthews’ goal-scoring lead is even more pronounced, where he is in first with 29, eight ahead of second-place MacKinnon’s 21 and 11 ahead of Kucherov’s 18. However, on the power play, Matthews drops down to 14th with nine goals, one behind Kucherov, who’s tied for fourth.
Despite his more middling results in this category, Matthews remains an outlier on the power play for another reason: his time on ice. Among the top 20 powerplay goal scorers, only three players have less ice time: Joe Pavelski, Zach Hyman and Frank Vatrano.
Kucherov has played 42 more minutes on the powerplay. MacKinnon has played 81 more minutes.
When you look at how greatly the powerplay is impacting MacKinnon and Kucherov’s point totals, it becomes clear that this discrepancy in opportunity is the biggest reason for Matthews’ lower point totals, not a lower quality of play.
While being the NHL’s overall point leaders, Kucherov and MacKinnon also lead the league in powerplay points. 38 per cent of MacKinnon’s points this season have come on the powerplay, as have 45 per cent of Kucherov’s. Only 28 per cent of Matthews’ points have come with the man advantage.
This likely has to do with these two playing with some of the other most prolific powerplay merchants in the league. Tampa Bay’s top three weapons outside of Kucherov—Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Brayden Point—all rank in the top 40 in powerplay points (seventh, 21st and 33rd respectively). Even Nick Paul sits at 40th in powerplay goals, tied with notable players like William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Clayton Keller, Anze Kopitar and Jesper Bratt.
The Avalanche’s top powerplay success is even more striking.
As Mikko Rantanen has 28 powerplay points and Cale Makar has 24, the Avalanche features two additional players in the top ten in powerplay scoring outside MacKinnon. Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is also second in the league in powerplay goals with 13.
This is important because it shows that MacKinnon and Kucherov aren’t driving the bus by themselves in terms of scoring. More than that, they are really benefiting from strong team play.
An indication that this is the case is in their secondary assists. A secondary assist is credited to the player who passes to a player who then passes to the eventual goal scorer. While obviously a valuable play, you would have a tough time justifying that it is as valuable as a primary assist. More often than not, a high number of primary assists suggests a lot of luck.
There are few better examples than Jonathan Huberdeau, who in 2021-22 finished third in the NHL with 115 points in 80 games. He was also third in secondary assists with 32. Since that season, Huberdeau has scored only 80 points in the following 124 games. Relying on secondary assists to buoy your point totals is not sustainable.
Bearing that in mind, Kucherov’s 11 secondary assists on the powerplay are second only to MacKinnon’s 14. In all strength situations, MacKinnon is again first in secondary assist with 25, half of all his assists and a third of his total points. Kucherov is in seventh with 19.
Compare that with Auston Matthews who has five secondary assists, full stop. On the powerplay, he has only three.
To summarize, Auston Matthews is currently playing at an otherworldly scoring pace, doing almost all of it in significantly more difficult even-strength situations, all while getting significantly less powerplay opportunity and little-to-no luck in the assist department.
In contrast, MacKinnon and Kucherov are having undeniably strong offensive seasons, while getting the benefit of more powerplay opportunities, exceptional powerplay support staff and a healthy dose of plain, old-fashioned luck.
If you ask me, the choice for the NHL MVP is obvious.