Now entering April and with every team having seven or fewer games to play, the NHL’s playoff picture is starting to come into focus. However, with many teams still not clinched and meaningful games still to play, there is plenty of intrigue remaining for these last few weeks.
The Eastern Conference final two: do you even want to make it?
While most of the Eastern Conference’s top teams clinched playoff berths on April 5th, the battle for the third spot in the Metro Division and the last wild card spot is still a dogfight – if you can even call it that.
The Red Wings, Islanders, Capitals and Flyers are all in solid positions for the last two spots, but they just keep losing.
Coming into the 5th, there was a slim difference between all the teams’ playoff chances. The Islanders were ahead by a hair (45 per cent), closely followed by Philadelphia (44.5 per cent), Detroit (43.4 per cent) and Washington. The latter three teams all played that day with a chance to claw their way back into contention. Naturally, they all lost.
The four teams are a combined 16-17-5 in their last ten games, which over the course of a full season would put them in line for roughly 78, which would currently be eighth-last in the entire NHL.
The Flyers—who began the season miraculously overperforming expectations—have likely had the worst go of it, crashing back to earth, and losing eight straight games.
The Capitals aren’t far behind, losing six straight before beating the Red Wings on the 10th. At this point, if Washington made the playoffs, they would be one of the most shocking teams to ever qualify for the NHL playoffs. Boasting a –40 goal differential, the Capitals have been outscored at a higher rate than every team in the NHL save for the Canadiens, the Blackhawks, the Blue Jackets, the Ducks and the Sharks, the five worst teams in the league.
Possibly the most hilarious outcome of this comedy of errors is the re-emergence of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
To put it lightly, the Pens were poor for almost the entire season. Entering March 27th, the Penguins held a 3.6 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs and were all but counted out.
Since then, Pittsburgh is 6-1-3 in their last 10 and have improved their playoff chances to 44.7 per cent with the losses by the Wings, Caps and Flyers.
The East is primed for a very funny conclusion.
The Wide-Open West:
As of the 5th, four Western Conference teams have clinched: the top three teams in the Central Division (the Stars, Avalanche and Jets) and the Canucks.
Outside of those teams, there is still so much that can happen.
The Oilers have the most points and games in hand, making them the most likely candidate to clinch next. However, they’ve looked so-so in their past 10 games, and after a mediocre trade deadline, they are also a great candidate to get caught.
The next two teams in the Pacific—the Knights and the Kings—are both breathing down the Oilers’ neck.
Vegas, after a slow first half, has rebounded at the right time following a massive overhaul at the deadline. Less than a month ago, their playoff chances were barely over 70 per cent, but have won six of their last ten and have been flip-flopping with the Kings for third in the division.
While the Kings have faltered at times over the last few weeks, they have chugged along at around a 95 per cent playoff probability for about two months, having banked sufficient points pre-trade deadline.
While not a powerhouse, the Kings are still a sneaky-deep team. The Kings have both Philip Danault and Pierre-Luc Dubois down the middle, giving them strong centre depth. With the emergence of Trevor Moore, the return of Viktor Arvidsson, and the ever-dynamic Kevin Fiala, LA also has three balanced scoring units. Throw in the Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe unit’s arrival as one of the best top lines in the NHL, the Kings could pose a serious threat, either in the waning days of the regular season or into the playoffs.
While the Kings can still fight for third place in their division, the Central wildcard is all but guaranteed to be the Nashville Predators.
The Preds are solid right now, but unfortunately play in likely the NHL’s strongest division, leaving them outside the divisional race.
While the Preds may not be a young, flashy, high-octane team, they are nevertheless exciting.
At 33, Ryan O’Reilly has returned to peak form, playing tough minutes and elevating his teammates as a first-line, matchup centre. His linemate, Filip Forsberg, is also at the top of his game, hitting career-highs in both goals (43) and points (89). Roman Josi is also quietly having a Norris-calibre season, sitting third among defencemen in points, second in even-strength points and first in goals.
Outside of their top guys, Nashville’s depth has stepped up, even if they’re not exactly filling the net. Gus Nyquist and Thomas Novak are both having excellent seasons while coach Andrew Burnette has coaxed stellar defensive play out of the rest of his lineup.
What’s scary about this team is that they’ve managed to perform this well while their most important player—goaltender Juuse Saros—has been little better than league average, a drastic underperformance from one of the NHL’s star goalies.
Especially if Saros can recover, they can make things very interesting for their first-round playoff matchup.