The Toronto Blue Jays have high expectations in 2024 looking to win their first playoff game since 2016 and push for a World Series title. However, in hopes of winning their third championship in team history, there are some big question marks surrounding the team as Opening Day approaches.
Will Vladdy return to his MVP form?
It was only two seasons ago that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished as runner-up for the A.L. MVP award, with a league-leading 48 home runs (HR) to go with 111 runs batted in (RBI), a .311 batting average (AVG). and a .401 on-base percentage (OBP).
However, since then, Vladdy’s play at the plate has dipped, hitting below .300 – .274 in 2022 and .264 in 2023 – with a wins above replacement (WAR) of 2.0, significantly less than the 6.7 WAR he had during his stellar 2021 campaign.
As the focal point of Toronto’s offence, Guerrero Jr.’s MVP-calibre slugging will be necessary if the Jays want to play October baseball, especially as he’ll likely hit in the three-spot behind Bo Bichette – who gets on-base at an exceptional rate – providing many opportunities to drive in runs.
What’s the status of Alek Manoah?
Alek Manoah was a finalist for the A.L. Cy Young award in 2022 but saw a drastic decline last season forcing him to be demoted to the Florida Complex League, the lowest level of minor-league baseball in North America. Manoah lacked confidence at times last year leading to a 5.87 earned run average (ERA), up from 2.24 in 2022.
The Jays were hoping that an offseason refresh would be enough for the 26-year-old to re-find his form and solidify his spot in the already-dominant pitching rotation. However, those aspirations lasted 1.2 innings in Spring Training as Manoah allowed four earned runs in his only start and hasn’t pitched in a game since with a shoulder injury.
He did throw a live batting practice on March 22nd and by all accounts will start the season in Triple-A with the Buffalo Bisons once healthy.
While starting in Buffalo isn’t the outcome the organization was hoping for, it may be a good thing for Manoah as it’ll give him time to re-develop his confidence outside of the Toronto spotlight, with the hope that he can shine again in the major leagues when his number is called.
Will the Jays hit with runners in scoring position?
It’s no secret that the Jays struggled with runners in scoring position last season (RISP). The Jays hit .260 as a team with RISP, registering 491 RBIs – ranking second worst among all playoff teams – while only hitting 34 HRs which was fourth-fewest among all teams in 2023.
In hoping to turn that around this season, the Jays signed veteran first baseman/designated hitter Justin Turner to provide a necessary spark in the middle of the lineup.
Turner, the 2020 World Series Champion with the Dodgers, hit .338 with RISP last season with the Red Sox, which was better than everyone on Toronto last season except Bo Bichette (.364).
With the 39-year-old (likely) hitting cleanup behind Springer-Bichette-Guerrero Jr., there should be plenty of opportunities for Turner to drive in runs and help elevate the offence to its true potential.
Who’s at third?
Once Matt Chapman signed his 3-year/$54 million contract with the San Francisco Giants during Spring Training, it became apparent that the Jays’ third baseman this season was going to be someone within the organization – but who?
Isiah Kiner-Falefa seems like the most likely candidate to begin the season with the bulk of the play at third having signed a 2-year/$15 million contract with the club in December. Signed primarily for his defence, the 29-year-old Hawaiian showed potential with the bat in Spring Training, hitting .324 with 11 hits and four RBIs in 41 plate appearances.
But challenging Kiner-Falefa at third is Ernie Clement who has also had an impressive spring. Clement, who manager John Schneider announced has made the Opening Day roster, hit .375 with three HRs and eight RBIs in 14 Spring Training games. The upside for Clement starting at third is that the Rochester, N.Y. native has more offensive power and potential than Kiner-Falefa which may be in his favour if the Jays opt for a more offensively minded lineup.
Rounding out the third base options are Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider, two guys who are likely to platoon at second base but have also shown their abilities to play third. If one (or both) of them get hot with the bat, expect them to steal some of the third base playing time especially if Kiner-Falefa and Clement struggle at the plate.
Will the Jays be able to stay healthy?
The Jays were fortunate that last season injuries were minimal, but so far in Spring Training the injury list is starting to pile up.
Kevin Gausman, A.L. Cy Young finalist from a year ago, was limited in Spring Training with shoulder fatigue, worrying fans that an injury on his pitching arm this early in the season may lead to more complications later this year. However, Gausman is still expected to start his turn in the rotation in Tampa Bay or Houston, after throwing three stellar innings against the Pirates on March 25th in the Jays final game of the spring.
Danny Jansen is once again dealing with a fracture on his arm, this time in his right pisiform bone after getting hit by a pitch on March 13th. Jansen is expected to return in mid to late April, meaning Brian Serven will serve as the backup catcher to Alejandro Kirk for the time being.
Jordan Romano, the A.L. reliever with the second-most saves (36) last season, is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will be out to start the season. Fortunately, an MRI indicated that there was no structural damage, meaning that the Markham native could return sooner than expected.
Erik Swanson is another relief pitcher that will likely be unavailable to begin the season After experiencing right forearm tightness during a relief appearance on March 13th, Swanson appears to be progressing well and will be throwing off a mound at some point this week.
Health will continue to be a main story all season long as the Jays (and every team) will need their best players available if they aspire to compete for a division title and win the coveted Commissioner’s Trophy this fall.
The Jays begin their season on March 28th against the Tampa Bay Rays with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m Eastern Time. For more information on the Toronto Blue Jays, head to bluejays.com.
