Trump’s repeated talk of annexing Canada begs the question: Could the U.S. ever actually invade Canada, and what would happen if they did?
Earlier this month, in a statement made before Mark Carney replaced him as Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau claimed that President Donald Trump was deliberately trying to undermine Canada’s economy as part of his plan to eventually annex the country. Since winning re-election, Trump has consistently shown little respect for Canadian sovereignty, frequently calling Canada the “51st state” and referring to Trudeau as its “governor.” He has also described the Canada-U.S. border as “an artificial boundary” and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 1908 treaty that established it.
So far, Trump has not suggested deploying troops to Ontario. Instead, he appears convinced that he can force Canada into annexation by other means.
But Canadians are firmly against the idea.
“Canada will never, under any circumstances, become part of the United States,” Prime Minister Mark Carney firmly stated, leaving no doubt about the nation’s stance. Additionally, the Canadian Armed Forces reported in February that after years of declining recruitment, enlistment numbers have spiked since Trump’s inauguration, with roughly 1,000 more applicants compared to the previous year. While Canadian officials stopped short of directly linking this surge to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, they didn’t dismiss the possibility.
With Canada clearly unwilling to join the U.S. by choice, the question remains: Would Trump actually attempt to annex the country by force? If so, would U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth support such an outrageous move?
In Trump’s previous term, his own team often stepped in to block some of his more reckless ideas — such as launching military strikes on Iran or Venezuela. Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed that he had to prevent Trump from ordering law enforcement to shoot protesters in the legs during the George Floyd demonstrations near the White House.
However, with complete loyalty to Trump now seemingly the primary qualification for government employment in the U.S., Trump may have freer reign.
The idea of the United States invading Canada may sound like the plot of a far-fetched dystopian thriller, but history, rhetoric and modern geopolitics remind us that even the unthinkable, at times, is not impossible.
St. Catharines — nestled in the Niagara region, just a stone’s throw from the U.S. border — would likely be among the first to feel the ripple effects of any cross-border aggression. To understand how such a scenario might unfold, it’s worth revisiting the last time it happened — the War of 1812 — and weighing that against recent political tensions and the realities of modern warfare.
In 1812, the United States invaded what was then British North America, hoping to annex Canadian territory. The Niagara Peninsula was a key front, with battles fought in Queenston Heights and Fort George. Canadians, British troops and Indigenous allies resisted, ultimately preventing a U.S. takeover. The war forged a distinct Canadian identity, particularly in border communities like oursSt. Catharines.
If the unthinkable occurred and the U.S. considered military action against Canada, what would happen first?
- Diplomatic collapse: The first sign would be a severe diplomatic breakdown — trade freezes, ambassador recalls and NATO crises. The U.S. and Canada are NATO allies; an invasion would dismantle that alliance and trigger global outrage.
- Cyber and economic warfare: Before boots hit the ground, cyberattacks would likely cripple communication networks and financial systems, targeting banks, infrastructure and emergency services.
- Border seizures: Niagara would be a key target. Border crossings in Buffalo and Niagara Falls could be militarized almost instantly. Airspace closures, roadblocks and evacuation orders would follow.
- Global response: Allies in Europe and Asia, as well as the United Nations, would condemn the invasion. Economic sanctions on the U.S. would be swift and severe (already, Germany and Britain have issued travel advisory warnings to the U.S.).
- Canadian resilience: While Canada’s military is smaller, it is modern and well-trained. More importantly, Canada’s defence would be bolstered by global support. Unlike 1812, today’s Canada stands on the world stage with powerful allies.
In reality, an outright U.S. invasion of Canada remains highly unlikely — not only because of military or political consequences, but because the two nations are deeply interconnected economically, culturally and diplomatically. Still, the War of 1812 teaches us that the unimaginable has happened before, and the political climate of recent years tells us that no scenario is too absurd to consider — especially when it comes to Donald Trump.
For communities like St. Catharines, the question isn’t just “What if?” It’s a reminder to stay informed, engaged and aware of our place in both history and current affairs.